Sea Level in the Chesapeake Bay is rising only about half as fast as the global average rise rate, however the local subsidence more than makes up for it. Dr. John Boon, who is the study’s lead author, has previously warned of the long term impacts of the sea-level rise in Hampton Roads especially in light if the increased likelihood of coastal flooding during hurricanes and nor’easters. In Dr. Boon’s report, it states the different between absolute  sea level, a measure of the volume and mass of ocean water, and relative sea level, the level of the ocean surface measured relative to land (and more specifically a tide gauge). It is noted that for the Chesapeake Bay moderates the rates of absolute sea-level rise; when combined with locally high rates of land the subsidence and the increasing coastal population it adds up to a significant and growing threat.

The Chesapeake is naturally saltier near its mouth and fresher near the inflow of rivers. The salinity change that was found was consistent with the trend determined from the statistical analysis; supporting the hypothesis that sea-level rise has significantly increased salinity in the Bay. However, the Penn State researchers note that historical salinity data is limited and sedimentation reshapes the bed of the Bay. There are also cyclical effects partially due to Potomac River flow, Atlantic Shelf salinity and winds. The salt content affects jelly fish, oysters, sea grasses and many other forms of aquatic life. The Chesapeake Bay is a beautiful place, used for recreation and for people's livelihoods. It is a real jewel on the East Coast and changes in salinity can alter its uses. Our research improves our understanding of the influence of climate change on the Bay and can therefore be used to improve costly restoration strategies.

Coastal habitats in the Chesapeake Bay region, near Washington D.C., will be dramatically altered if sea levels rise globally about two feet by the end of the century, which is at the low end of what is predicted if global warming pollution remains unaddressed. Because of this problem the region would lose more than 167,000 acres of undeveloped dry land, 58% of the beaches along ocean coasts, and 69% of estuarine beaches along the bay. There is to be more than 161,000 acres of brackish marsh and more than half of the regions important tidal swamp.

The Chesapeake Bay provides critical stop over and wintering habitat for more than one million migratory waterfowl, including the canvasback, mallard, redhead, American black duck, tundra swan, and Canada goose. The bay’s coastal marshes are home to great blue heron, snowy egret, and other familiar birds, and they provide important food sources and nesting sites for numerous songbirds, mammals, reptiles, and amphibians. The region’s beaches support some of the largest populations of shore birds in the western hemisphere such as red knot and piping plover, and are a critical nesting site for sea turtles. The Chesapeake Bay sustains recreational and commercial fisheries worth billions of dollars annually, including popular blue crab, rockfish, menhaden, and eastern oyster.

This research has helped the scientists to improve their understanding of the influences of the climate changes on the Bay and hopefully can and will be used to improve the costly restoration strategies.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/11/081120122157.htm

How much do we really know about our oceans and the climate?  After years of research, scientists have finally provided clear evidence that the earth surface temperature has indeed risen by 0.5 Celsius over the last 100 years. Even though they have proven the rise in the temperature, scientists are still not certain as to what is really causing this increase in the temperature; as well as to what are the short and long term effects on the regional and global scales. Given the increase level of greenhouses gases, there will be an increase in the surface temperature. Because greenhouses are not the only influence on temperature, there are other causes, such as clouds, aerosols, and the ocean that also has a big effect in temperature.

            The Earth’s ocean and the atmosphere are locked in an intricate embrace.  At the line between air and sea, there is a constant flow of information; as massive amounts of energy and chemicals in the form of gases and aerosols are continually being exchanged. If the energy and the chemicals are the languages that program the behavior of atmosphere and ocean, then the regional and global scale climate variations are the productions from this complex system. Maybe with better technology and support, scientists will be able address the relation between ocean and atmosphere. Since the 1960s, scientists have developed sophisticated computer models to help them understand the ocean's role in moderating climate, but there are still many questions remain unanswered. The ocean has partially balanced the anticipated global warming due to rising greenhouse gas levels by exerting a cooling effect on climate. However, scientists do not know whether the ocean's cooling influence will continue. Some theorize that if the ocean's circulation system changes, then the ocean could contribute to, or even intensify global warming.

            The reliable sea surface temperature measurements from space-based sensors have been a goal of oceanographers since the late 1960s. For the first time ever, NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) missions will provide oceanographers with the radiometric determination and accuracy, the scientific calibration, the surface viewing geometry, and the ability to remove atmospheric effects (such as clouds and aerosols) that will enable measurements of sea surface temperature accurate to within 0.5 Kelvin. These data will allow a better understanding of physical ocean-atmosphere coupling--particularly during El Niño events.

            Moreover, by surely the ocean color, scientists can accurately estimate the attentions of phytoplankton on a global scale, some phytoplankton are bacteria, some are protists, and most are single-celled plants. The ocean couples with the atmosphere in two main ways. The first way is physically, through the exchange of heat, water, and momentum, and the ocean and atmosphere move because they are fluid. The speed and direction of air and sea currents are determined primarily by air temperature gradients. The color measurements with atmospheric aerosol and trace gas measurements will also produce new understandings into the chemical links between ocean and atmosphere.  Studies after studies have somewhat cleared that there is an almost mechanistic system by which the ocean drives climate change.           

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/OceanClimate/oceanclimate.php

OCEAN POLLUTION

Where does most of the ocean pollution come from? Most of us are in denial when it comes to ocean pollution and global warming.  In fact over 85% of the ocean pollution is caused by the land- based activates.  From plastic bags to pesticides, most of the waste we produce on land eventually reaches the oceans. This happens through deliberate dumping or from run-off through drains and rivers by oil, fertilizer, solid garbage, sewage, and toxic chemicals.

Land oil causes more damage than oil spills. According to statistics only 12% of the oil spills cause a major damage to the marine life/environment; while 36% of the damage is caused by the down the drains and rivers and waste and runoff from our cities and the industries.

Fertilizers runoff from farms and lawns are one of the major problems for the coastal areas.  Seas of garbage make their ways to the oceans; sea garbage is anything from shoes, plastic bags, balloons, glass battles to packaging material. Most of this garbage does not decay and if some of this garbage does decompose it does so but very slowly. Plastic garbage is one example of it.  Plastic bags is causing a lot of the marine species death; because it blocking the breathing passages and stomachs. Such marine animals are whales, dolphins, seals, puffins, and turtles. Also, the plastic six-pack rings that are used for drink bottles cause the choking of marine animals. This garbage does not only damage the ocean, it also comes back to the shore and it pollutes the beaches and other coastal habitats. Sewage disposal, in many part of our world is an untreated meaning that 80% of the sewage that is discharged into the Mediterranean Sea is untreated. This sewage disposal does not just cause problems for the ocean life, but also it can cause many human diseases that could lead to death and closures of beaches.

Moreover; toxic chemicals also known the man-made chemical is a big problem. It contaminates the smallest marine organism from the tiniest plankton to the largest such as the whales and polar bears. Sad to say most of these man-made chemicals are dumped in our oceans deliberately. Such toxic chemicals are toxic materials, pesticides, chemical weapons, and radioactive waste. Thankfully in 1972 the London Dumping Convention banned most of the toxic materials and in 1996 they even made it more restricted when it came to the dumping at the seas. Chemicals also enter the sea from land-based activities. Also chemicals can enter the sea from the land based activities. It can escape into water, soil, and air during their manufacture, use, or disposal, as well as from accidental leaks or fires in products containing these chemicals. Once in the environment, they can travel for long distances in air and water, including ocean currents. People once assumed that the ocean was so large that all pollutants would be diluted and dispersed to safe levels. But in reality, they have not disappeared - and some toxic man-made chemicals have even become more concentrated as they have entered the food chain.

Furthermore, tiny animals at the bottom of the food chain, such as plankton in the oceans, absorb the chemicals as they feed. Because they do not break down easily, the chemicals accumulate in these organisms, becoming much more concentrated in their bodies than in the surrounding water or soil. These organisms are eaten by small animals, and the concentration rises again. These animals are in turn eaten by larger animals, which can travel large distances with their even further increased chemical load. Animals higher up the food chain, such as seals, can have contamination levels millions of times higher than the water in which they live. And polar bears, which feed on seals, can have contamination levels up to 3 billion times higher than their environment. People become contaminated either directly from household products or by eating contaminated seafood and animal fats.

In conclusion, more evidence shows that a number of man-made chemicals can cause serious health problems - including cancer, damage to the immune system, behavioral problems, and reduced fertility. Luckily for humane we can sue each other to either end the problems or get some kind of satisfaction, while the ocean can’t speak for itself.

http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/blue_planet/problems/pollution/

What is the Great Pacific Ocean Garbage Patch?

It is a swirling sea of plastic bags, bottles and other debris is growing in the North Pacific, and now another one has been found in the Atlantic. Not all garbage ends up at the dump, a river, sewer or beach can't catch everything the rain washes away, either. In fact, Earth's largest landfill isn't on land at all.

The Great Pacific Garbage Patch stretches for hundreds of miles across the North Ocean; it is forming a nebulous, floating junk yard on the high seas; this plastic that begins in the hands of the human and ends up in the ocean often inside the animals stomachs or around their poor little necks. The Great Pacific Garbage Patch has been described as the “Trash Island.” But according to the director of the NOAA, Holly Bamford, that is a misconception. She stated that if that was the case than it would be easy they could just scoop up an island, but unfortunately that is not the case. Instead, it is more like a galaxy of garbage, and this galaxy of garbage is populated by billions of smaller trash islands that are hidden underwater or spread out over many miles. But to be exact it is still unknown as to how big this garbage patch is.

While there's still much we don't understand about the garbage patch, we do know that most of its made of plastic, and that's where the problems begin. Unlike most of the other trash, plastic isn’t biodegradable, meaning the microbes that break down the substances does not recognize the plastic as food so it leaves it to float there forever. The sunlight however does make the plastic smaller and smaller in time, but this actually makes the matter worse. The plastic never goes away but it becomes microscopic and may be eaten by the tiny marine organism, entering the food chain.

Earth has five or six major oceanic gyres a  huge spirals of seawater formed by colliding currents  but, one of the largest is the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre, filling most of the space between Japan and California. The upper part of this gyre, a few hundred miles north of Hawaii, is where warm water from the South Pacific crashes into cooler water from the north. Known as the North Pacific Subtropical Convergence Zone, this is also where the trash collects.

It may take several years for debris to reach this area, depending where it's coming from. Plastic can be washed from the interiors of continents to the sea via sewers, streams and rivers, or it might simply wash away from the coast. Either way, it can be a six- or seven-year journey before it's spinning around in the garbage patch. On the other hand, fishing nets and steel containers are often dropped right in with the rest of the trash.

Moreover, recycling needs to increase, we need to learn how to reuse what we buy. And educate the third world countries on the importance of this travesty.

  http://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/translating-uncle-sam/stories/what-is-the-great-pacific-ocean-garbage-patch

Global Warming

     Scientists have spent decades figuring out what is causing global warming. They've looked at the natural cycles and events that are known to influence climate. But the amount and pattern of warming that's been measured can't be explained by these factors alone..

     One of the first things scientists learned is that there are several greenhouse gases responsible for warming, and humans emit them in a variety of ways. Most come from the combustion of fossil fuels in cars, factories and electricity production. The gas responsible for the most warming is carbon dioxide, also called CO2.

   moreover, other contributors are methane. It is  released from landfills and agriculture (especially from the digestive systems of grazing animals), nitrous oxide from fertilizers, gases used for refrigeration and industrial processes, and the loss of forests that would otherwise store CO2. Different greenhouse gases have very different heat-trapping abilities. Some of them can even trap more heat than CO2. A molecule of methane produces more than 20 times the warming of a molecule of CO2. Nitrous oxide is 300 times more powerful than CO2. Other gases, such as chlorofluorocarbons have heat-trapping potential thousands of times greater than CO2; because their concentrations are much lower than CO2, none of these gases adds as much warmth to the atmosphere as CO2 does. Since the 1990s, yearly emissions have gone up by about 6 billion metric tons of "carbon dioxide equivalent" worldwide, more than a 20% increase.

  Green house gases are said to be can in the atmosphere for an amount of years ranging from decades to hundreds and thousands of years. No matter what we do, global warming is going to have some effect on Earth. we can not go back and change the damage that we have already caused but we can always start now to minimize the threat.

http://environment.nationalgeographic.com/environment/global-warming/gw-causes

 

Massy Friday

Black Friday/Messy Friday

    Most of Northern New England will wake up to a very messy Friday, combination of snow, sleet or freezing rain is likely across most of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. Some rain showers will be extend southward the middle Atlantic Coast. Colder sir will come from the west. After some rain showers, it will slowly change to snow showers over the parts of upstate New York.

     More over, colder air will be taking over the warm lakes by Friday afternoon.

It would be very smart that those in New York who are getting ready to go do some black Friday shopping, check on the forecast as it states that it will receive several inches of snow.

The temperatures for most of the Northern states will be on the high 30s, as the upstate New York temperature stays high 30s the middle Atlantic region will be in the mid 50s.

    

   The wintry conditions be felt and noticed from Vermont to Michigan as the lake effect snow event will dump snow on the area. As this cold air reaches the lake Superior it will also bring some snow. Snow showers will fall over parts of the northern Minnesota but no accumulation is to be expected.

    While the north east are experiencing this cold weather, most of the Midwest states will be seeing some sunshine and warmer weathers. Making it easier to get those last black Friday shopping done. The temperatures are expected to range from 20s from the northern Plains and northern Great Lakes to the middle 50s over the southern Plains.

     Most of the south with experience showers, with high temperatures of 70s from North Carolinas to Georgia. Florida will be loving it it will be at least 80 degrees, while south west states will be experiencing temperatures of 40s to 50s.

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/forecastsummary/uscurrenttemperatures_large.html

 

Forecasting can be broadly considered as a method or a technique for estimating many future aspects of a business or other operation. There are numerous techniques that can be used to accomplish the goal of forecasting. For example, a retailing firm that has been in business for 25 years can forecast its volume of sales in the coming year based on its experience over the 25-year period—such a forecasting technique bases the future forecast on the past data.

     

The term "forecasting" may appear to be rather technical, planning for the future is a critical aspect of managing any organization—business, nonprofit. The long-term success of any organization is closely tied to how well the management of the organization is able to foresee its future and to develop appropriate strategies to deal with likely future scenarios. Intuition, good judgment, and an awareness of how well the economy is doing may give the manager of a business firm a rough idea (or "feeling") of what is likely to happen in the future.

Nevertheless, it’s not easy to convert a feeling about the future into a precise and useful number, such as next year's sales volume or the raw material cost per unit of output. Forecasting methods can help estimate many such future aspects of a business operation. If the forecaster has an idea of what the real disposable income may be in the coming year, a forecast for future auto sales can be generated. One should remember that forecasts based on this method should also be judged on the basis of a measure of forecast errors. One can continue to assume that the forecaster uses the mean squares error discussed earlier. Using forecast, errors regression analysis uses additional ways of analyzing the effectiveness of the estimated regression line in forecasting.

These pictures are few ways that we get out forecast, now days it all technology!!!

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/forecasting-with-a-grain-of-salt/