Global Warming

     Scientists have spent decades figuring out what is causing global warming. They've looked at the natural cycles and events that are known to influence climate. But the amount and pattern of warming that's been measured can't be explained by these factors alone..

     One of the first things scientists learned is that there are several greenhouse gases responsible for warming, and humans emit them in a variety of ways. Most come from the combustion of fossil fuels in cars, factories and electricity production. The gas responsible for the most warming is carbon dioxide, also called CO2.

   moreover, other contributors are methane. It is  released from landfills and agriculture (especially from the digestive systems of grazing animals), nitrous oxide from fertilizers, gases used for refrigeration and industrial processes, and the loss of forests that would otherwise store CO2. Different greenhouse gases have very different heat-trapping abilities. Some of them can even trap more heat than CO2. A molecule of methane produces more than 20 times the warming of a molecule of CO2. Nitrous oxide is 300 times more powerful than CO2. Other gases, such as chlorofluorocarbons have heat-trapping potential thousands of times greater than CO2; because their concentrations are much lower than CO2, none of these gases adds as much warmth to the atmosphere as CO2 does. Since the 1990s, yearly emissions have gone up by about 6 billion metric tons of "carbon dioxide equivalent" worldwide, more than a 20% increase.

  Green house gases are said to be can in the atmosphere for an amount of years ranging from decades to hundreds and thousands of years. No matter what we do, global warming is going to have some effect on Earth. we can not go back and change the damage that we have already caused but we can always start now to minimize the threat.

http://environment.nationalgeographic.com/environment/global-warming/gw-causes

 

Massy Friday

Black Friday/Messy Friday

    Most of Northern New England will wake up to a very messy Friday, combination of snow, sleet or freezing rain is likely across most of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. Some rain showers will be extend southward the middle Atlantic Coast. Colder sir will come from the west. After some rain showers, it will slowly change to snow showers over the parts of upstate New York.

     More over, colder air will be taking over the warm lakes by Friday afternoon.

It would be very smart that those in New York who are getting ready to go do some black Friday shopping, check on the forecast as it states that it will receive several inches of snow.

The temperatures for most of the Northern states will be on the high 30s, as the upstate New York temperature stays high 30s the middle Atlantic region will be in the mid 50s.

    

   The wintry conditions be felt and noticed from Vermont to Michigan as the lake effect snow event will dump snow on the area. As this cold air reaches the lake Superior it will also bring some snow. Snow showers will fall over parts of the northern Minnesota but no accumulation is to be expected.

    While the north east are experiencing this cold weather, most of the Midwest states will be seeing some sunshine and warmer weathers. Making it easier to get those last black Friday shopping done. The temperatures are expected to range from 20s from the northern Plains and northern Great Lakes to the middle 50s over the southern Plains.

     Most of the south with experience showers, with high temperatures of 70s from North Carolinas to Georgia. Florida will be loving it it will be at least 80 degrees, while south west states will be experiencing temperatures of 40s to 50s.

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/forecastsummary/uscurrenttemperatures_large.html

 

Forecasting can be broadly considered as a method or a technique for estimating many future aspects of a business or other operation. There are numerous techniques that can be used to accomplish the goal of forecasting. For example, a retailing firm that has been in business for 25 years can forecast its volume of sales in the coming year based on its experience over the 25-year period—such a forecasting technique bases the future forecast on the past data.

     

The term "forecasting" may appear to be rather technical, planning for the future is a critical aspect of managing any organization—business, nonprofit. The long-term success of any organization is closely tied to how well the management of the organization is able to foresee its future and to develop appropriate strategies to deal with likely future scenarios. Intuition, good judgment, and an awareness of how well the economy is doing may give the manager of a business firm a rough idea (or "feeling") of what is likely to happen in the future.

Nevertheless, it’s not easy to convert a feeling about the future into a precise and useful number, such as next year's sales volume or the raw material cost per unit of output. Forecasting methods can help estimate many such future aspects of a business operation. If the forecaster has an idea of what the real disposable income may be in the coming year, a forecast for future auto sales can be generated. One should remember that forecasts based on this method should also be judged on the basis of a measure of forecast errors. One can continue to assume that the forecaster uses the mean squares error discussed earlier. Using forecast, errors regression analysis uses additional ways of analyzing the effectiveness of the estimated regression line in forecasting.

These pictures are few ways that we get out forecast, now days it all technology!!!

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/forecasting-with-a-grain-of-salt/

 

Nations Weather

     Weather has been predicted to be very sever this year, this weather is believed to move through the middle portion of the country by the end of this weeks due to the development of the two low pressure systems.

     The first low pressure system is expected to begin the day just north of the North Dakota before moving northeastward toward the Hudson Bay. The cold front, that is associated with a storm would remain draped from states like Oklahoma through the upper Midwest. Due to this weather, rain is forecast to fall along these fronts, the heaviest precipitation is expected over the mid states.

    The second low pressure system is expected to develop by Friday in the afternoon and evening as it moves out to the Southern Rockies and into the Southern plains. Colorado Rockies should be able to receive some snow throughout the day as the storm moves to the east.

    Furthermore, a Pacific cold front is also expected to appear into the Northwest by this weekend. This front will be bringing rain and high elevation snow for states such as Washington and Oregon. The Northeast is expected to have high temperatures of 40s and 50s. However, the Southeast should be able to see temperatures in the 70s and 80s.

    With is sever weather, areas such as Iowa to Wisconsin will experience a snowfall, as the storm that has already brought snow to the parts of the West. The snow is expected to fall by Saturday morning across part of the northern Iowa than streak to the eastern Wisconsin. The snow should end by early Sunday morning, the cold snow however, will remain. Its best that the citizens know that the snow will not go away all at once.

    This weekend is bringing more autumn bliss for most people in the East, but the winter is catching up early this year.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/41408/east-beautiful-weekend-weather-1.asp

 

Tropical Depression Tomas

As the Island of Haiti is still recovering from the divesting earthquake back in January of 2010, they are now under a hurricane threat. The government had already issued a warning and had all the victims of the earthquake at the refuge camps advised to seek safety at any homes they can find.

             However, with the recent updates on the tropical storm/ depression Tomas, the NHC has now given the people of Haiti some relief. They have said that Tomas was just a disorganized tropical depression as of Wednesday forecasters don’t expect it to regain hurricane force. The storm winds are about 35 miles per hour and was about 390 miles southwest of Port-au-Price, Haiti, and moving west- northwest at about 6 miles per hour.

Hurricanes can be very unpredictable unfortunately.  There is a brief increase in wind shear over Tomas is the suspected culprit behind the weakening trend. However, shear is expected to weaken soon. With the lighter wind shear the atmospheric conditions should be ideal for Tomas to begin strengthen by tonight. The forecast still calls for Tomas to become a tropical storm, by Thursday night or Friday. Tomas should gradually turn toward the northwest today and toward the north tonight and Thursday. On the current forecast path Tomas could pass close to Jamaica Thursday night and Friday morning. For that reason a tropical storm watch is in effect for Jamaica. Tomas is forecast to pass over western Haiti later Friday and Friday night as a tropical storm; Tomas is predicated to  bring heavy rainfall, flooding and mud slides to Jamaica, Haiti and the Dominican Republic Thursday through at least Saturday. This would be particularly devastating to Haiti.

The Storm has already killed 14 people and left seven missing in the eastern Caribbean nation of St. Lucia.  

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/

As the storm in the Midwest makes its history we must not forget the hurricanes. As of Tuesday tropical storm Shary has formed in the Atlantic basin. This tropical is located about 350 miles of Island of Bermuda. The top winds are about 40 mph. A tropical storm watch is effect.

Tropical Storm Shary is expected to turn toward the north and slow in forward speed on Friday, followed by a turn to the northeast on Friday night. This track brings the center of the storm near or over Bermuda late on Friday.

The system is stationary in areas of low pressure located about 1200 miles to the northwest of the Verde Islands. The system has the wind shears and may not develop right away. It is believed that the system will remain nearly stationary for a while. And it may begin to drift to the west or northwest by Friday. It must be noted that at this point this system is not yet a threat to the land.

The third system is very well developed, it is located in South America. The winds at 15 to 20 mph are moving toward the west and northwest.

An atmospheric conditions are and will be developing tropical wave. There is believe that this wave has the possibility to to develop an area of low pressure and become a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Windward Island this weekend. This should not be taken lightly, everyone should be on the watch for this system over the weekend.

As the tropical storm in the South America develops in to a hurricane, Okinawa, Japan gets a visit from the Typhoon Chaba yesterday. This typhoon is expected to continue moving northeastward toward main Japanese Islands. It appears that top winds in Chaba could be 60 to 65 mph as it approaches Japan but the highest winds should stay offshore. Parts of Honshu Island could see some heavy rains.

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

Unusual Severe activities

Unusual Severe activities

As we enter the fall season, the Southwest of United States is getting showers and thunderstorms accompany an upper level low. Some of the thunderstorms could become severe producing hail, damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes in eastern New Mexico. The heavy downpours from these storms could possibly produce flooding in States such as; Arizona, New Mexico, Southern Colorado, South Utah, and possibly Nevada. According to the lead meteorologist, Kevin Roth from the weather channel all of this could happen as soon as October 21.

We could see the storm moving into the southern plains by Friday and leaving a light rain and some mountain snow showers in Colorado, Utah and eastern part of Nevada. Palin States like Texas should see some severe weather to go across it.

Oregon and Southern California are also victims of this new storm. These to states will be getting some showers later today and these showers should spread northward along the coast to Washington and Inland to the Cascade and northern Sierra- Nevada by tonight.

The temperatures on the Southwestern part of United States is expected to be around mid 60s and 70s for the entire regain with the exception of western part of Arizona and eastern California is believed to be in the low 80s .

Tonight the storms are expected to shift the eastward reaching central Oklahoma and central Texas by Friday morning. The storms should not be severe after midnight. Temperatures might be in the lower to middle 70s in eastern Tennessee, western North Carolina, far northern Georgia and western Texas.

Most of the Northeast part of the country is expected a cold front and drops through the region bringing a lot of showers. And colder air will be moving behind the cold front and changing the rain over to snow in the mountains of Northern New York and northern New England. The remainder of the region should be dry ad with some clouds. The temperatures are expected to be in the Mid 40s and lower 50s.

The Midwest part of the country has some colder air blowing in from Canada and this air will pick up some moisture as it comes across the Great lakes and deposits it in the form of showers in Michigan Ohio. There is no snow for those states. The Isolated thunderstorms might move into southwestern Kansas very late by this afternoon as a storm system moves through the southern Rocky Mountains. During the evening and overnight tonight the thunderstorms should expand into all of southern Kansas with showers moving into northern Kansas.

The remainder of the region is enjoying a sunny to partly cloudy and mild day. The temperatures for this part of the country will/expected to be in low and mid 60s and 70s. As always these are only predictions the weather could change on us at any given minute; but, it’s always a good/smart idea to prepare for the worse. We should be able to see these changes in our weather anywhere from 24 to 48 hours.

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/nationalforecast/index.html