Massy Friday

Black Friday/Messy Friday

    Most of Northern New England will wake up to a very messy Friday, combination of snow, sleet or freezing rain is likely across most of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. Some rain showers will be extend southward the middle Atlantic Coast. Colder sir will come from the west. After some rain showers, it will slowly change to snow showers over the parts of upstate New York.

     More over, colder air will be taking over the warm lakes by Friday afternoon.

It would be very smart that those in New York who are getting ready to go do some black Friday shopping, check on the forecast as it states that it will receive several inches of snow.

The temperatures for most of the Northern states will be on the high 30s, as the upstate New York temperature stays high 30s the middle Atlantic region will be in the mid 50s.

    

   The wintry conditions be felt and noticed from Vermont to Michigan as the lake effect snow event will dump snow on the area. As this cold air reaches the lake Superior it will also bring some snow. Snow showers will fall over parts of the northern Minnesota but no accumulation is to be expected.

    While the north east are experiencing this cold weather, most of the Midwest states will be seeing some sunshine and warmer weathers. Making it easier to get those last black Friday shopping done. The temperatures are expected to range from 20s from the northern Plains and northern Great Lakes to the middle 50s over the southern Plains.

     Most of the south with experience showers, with high temperatures of 70s from North Carolinas to Georgia. Florida will be loving it it will be at least 80 degrees, while south west states will be experiencing temperatures of 40s to 50s.

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/forecastsummary/uscurrenttemperatures_large.html

 

Forecasting can be broadly considered as a method or a technique for estimating many future aspects of a business or other operation. There are numerous techniques that can be used to accomplish the goal of forecasting. For example, a retailing firm that has been in business for 25 years can forecast its volume of sales in the coming year based on its experience over the 25-year period—such a forecasting technique bases the future forecast on the past data.

     

The term "forecasting" may appear to be rather technical, planning for the future is a critical aspect of managing any organization—business, nonprofit. The long-term success of any organization is closely tied to how well the management of the organization is able to foresee its future and to develop appropriate strategies to deal with likely future scenarios. Intuition, good judgment, and an awareness of how well the economy is doing may give the manager of a business firm a rough idea (or "feeling") of what is likely to happen in the future.

Nevertheless, it’s not easy to convert a feeling about the future into a precise and useful number, such as next year's sales volume or the raw material cost per unit of output. Forecasting methods can help estimate many such future aspects of a business operation. If the forecaster has an idea of what the real disposable income may be in the coming year, a forecast for future auto sales can be generated. One should remember that forecasts based on this method should also be judged on the basis of a measure of forecast errors. One can continue to assume that the forecaster uses the mean squares error discussed earlier. Using forecast, errors regression analysis uses additional ways of analyzing the effectiveness of the estimated regression line in forecasting.

These pictures are few ways that we get out forecast, now days it all technology!!!

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/forecasting-with-a-grain-of-salt/

 

Nations Weather

     Weather has been predicted to be very sever this year, this weather is believed to move through the middle portion of the country by the end of this weeks due to the development of the two low pressure systems.

     The first low pressure system is expected to begin the day just north of the North Dakota before moving northeastward toward the Hudson Bay. The cold front, that is associated with a storm would remain draped from states like Oklahoma through the upper Midwest. Due to this weather, rain is forecast to fall along these fronts, the heaviest precipitation is expected over the mid states.

    The second low pressure system is expected to develop by Friday in the afternoon and evening as it moves out to the Southern Rockies and into the Southern plains. Colorado Rockies should be able to receive some snow throughout the day as the storm moves to the east.

    Furthermore, a Pacific cold front is also expected to appear into the Northwest by this weekend. This front will be bringing rain and high elevation snow for states such as Washington and Oregon. The Northeast is expected to have high temperatures of 40s and 50s. However, the Southeast should be able to see temperatures in the 70s and 80s.

    With is sever weather, areas such as Iowa to Wisconsin will experience a snowfall, as the storm that has already brought snow to the parts of the West. The snow is expected to fall by Saturday morning across part of the northern Iowa than streak to the eastern Wisconsin. The snow should end by early Sunday morning, the cold snow however, will remain. Its best that the citizens know that the snow will not go away all at once.

    This weekend is bringing more autumn bliss for most people in the East, but the winter is catching up early this year.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/41408/east-beautiful-weekend-weather-1.asp

 

Tropical Depression Tomas

As the Island of Haiti is still recovering from the divesting earthquake back in January of 2010, they are now under a hurricane threat. The government had already issued a warning and had all the victims of the earthquake at the refuge camps advised to seek safety at any homes they can find.

             However, with the recent updates on the tropical storm/ depression Tomas, the NHC has now given the people of Haiti some relief. They have said that Tomas was just a disorganized tropical depression as of Wednesday forecasters don’t expect it to regain hurricane force. The storm winds are about 35 miles per hour and was about 390 miles southwest of Port-au-Price, Haiti, and moving west- northwest at about 6 miles per hour.

Hurricanes can be very unpredictable unfortunately.  There is a brief increase in wind shear over Tomas is the suspected culprit behind the weakening trend. However, shear is expected to weaken soon. With the lighter wind shear the atmospheric conditions should be ideal for Tomas to begin strengthen by tonight. The forecast still calls for Tomas to become a tropical storm, by Thursday night or Friday. Tomas should gradually turn toward the northwest today and toward the north tonight and Thursday. On the current forecast path Tomas could pass close to Jamaica Thursday night and Friday morning. For that reason a tropical storm watch is in effect for Jamaica. Tomas is forecast to pass over western Haiti later Friday and Friday night as a tropical storm; Tomas is predicated to  bring heavy rainfall, flooding and mud slides to Jamaica, Haiti and the Dominican Republic Thursday through at least Saturday. This would be particularly devastating to Haiti.

The Storm has already killed 14 people and left seven missing in the eastern Caribbean nation of St. Lucia.  

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/